Oil markets are now influenced by more than just supply and demand, with geopolitical factors playing a significant role in price fluctuations. OPEC+ has shifted from market share wars to market access control, with major players like the US and Russia manipulating market dynamics. The concept of custodial crude, or oil held in third-party inventories, is gaining importance as geopolitical tensions rise. Despite efforts by OPEC+ to stabilize prices, uncertainty and volatility persist due to geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures. Venezuela’s oil industry serves as a key uncertainty variable in the market. Risk premiums appear and fade quickly, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical events. Pay attention to curve signals, spreads, and inventories for insights into the shifting energy landscape.
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